Cascade Lab

re-cascading projections · lineup builder · contest sims · v1.4.2 · built 2026-09-15
Slate—
set by youre-cascaded by your inputsavailable inputΔ = change vs base projection

Player pool

Lineups

Exposure
Bucket mix
Paste lineups to sim (optional)

Lineups by ROI

Score distribution
What this is. Fair prop lines priced off the same simulation pool the Board uses — so every pin, asserted score and percentile you set on the Board moves these props too. What it isn't: a pick list. An EPA power model tested against 2017–2025 closing spreads went 51.6% ATS (−1.6% ROI), so game sides are not where the edge is. Props are priced one book at a time and carry 5–8% hold — check the hold column, and remember you need to clear it, not just clear 50%.

Press Price props from the pool to build stat lines for every player on the slate.

How the prop numbers are built

Each player already has 10,000 simulated fantasy scores. We turn each of those into a stat line by scaling his projected receptions, yards and touchdowns by how good that particular sim was for him — using exponents measured from real 2025 game logs (a WR's receptions scale with the exponent 0.58, his yards 0.91; a QB's passing touchdowns scale at 1.31, because big quarterback games are touchdown-driven rather than yardage-driven). Receptions are then drawn as catches out of targets, yards as a gamma per catch, touchdowns as counts — each tightened so the total spread matches what those players actually did week to week, since a prop's price is almost entirely a question of spread rather than average. Because the stat sims stay aligned with the fantasy sims, asserting a 38-point game on the Board re-weights these props automatically.

Hold is the book's built-in margin on the two-sided price. Edge compares our probability to the vig-free market probability. EV is what you'd expect to make per dollar at the price shown.

This week's slate

One click pulls everything from public feeds — no One Week Season involved: DraftKings (players, salaries, injury status, matchups), ESPN (totals & spreads), Sleeper (stat-line projections & injury news). Player IDs are DraftKings' own, so your pins, stars and groups survive a refresh.

Manual uploads (fallback if a feed is down)

Projection columns understood: name / player · team · pos · proj / projection / fpts / points / dk · ceil / ceiling · own / ownership / proj own · salary. Bink-style exports (Id,Name,Position,Team,ProjPts,ProjOwn) work as-is.

Poker Grinders roster sync

Vegas lines

Home line as the book writes it (−3.5 = home favored by 3.5). Pulled from ESPN; edit and rebuild if you disagree.

GameTotalHome lineImpliedKickoff

Model knobs

Higher shared passing variance ties a QB more tightly to his receivers (OWS behaves like ~0.55–0.6 here). Lower κ means receivers compete harder for targets. Rebuild after changing.

Poker Grinders scoring

Pulled from your Sleeper league (Superflex, half-PPR, TE +0.5). When the slate comes from the weekly pull, league points are scored exactly from Sleeper's stat lines; the built-in Week 1 sample converts DK points through a positional template instead.

Save & share

Everything autosaves in this browser. Export a snapshot to move it between devices or keep a week's work.

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